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December 8, 2008

Closers are Center Stage as Hot Stove Action Heats Up

There's plenty of offseason intrigue when it comes to big league closers. The game's best and the all-time saves leader are on the market, along with a number of others, and a host of teams need a ninth-inning guy.

Most of the intrigue surrounds the New York Mets, perhaps one of only two teams, along with the Angels, that is willing to offer a multiyear deal that pays as much as $10 million annually for a free-agent closer. Finding a closer is a top priority of the Mets. They will be without Billy Wagner for all of 2009 following his Tommy John surgery, and they reportedly have told the veteran southpaw that they will not pick up the option on his contract for 2010.

Free agents Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes have been primary targets, but New York also could pursue Colorado pickup Huston Street, Houston's Jose Valverde or J.J. Putz of the Mariners in trade talks.

Reportedly the Mets are most interested in Putz, who would give them a quality closer at a bargain price. The 31-year-old veteran will make $5 million during the upcoming season, and a team option would push him to $8.6 million in 2010. The New York Post is reporting that Seattle and New York have discussed Putz, but it's uncertain whether new Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is serious about a deal or simply seeing what Putz's value is on the trade market. Dealing such a quality arm with a manageable contract seems unlikely.

It's certainly to the Mets' advantage that a number of quality closers are available this winter. According to the New York Daily News, former Rockies closer Fuentes informed the Mets in late November that he was seeking $10-11 million a season. The veteran left-hander made half that with the Rockies in 2008, and his original pitch generated sticker shock.

When the Mets settle on their ninth-inning choice, the other free-agent closers will have to scramble. If the Mets swing a deal for the M's reliever, for instance, the market may not be nearly as attractive for K-Rod and Fuentes.

The Free Agents

Rodriguez turned down a three-year offer from the Angels a year ago -- reportedly for $34 million -- after the Yankees gave Mariano Rivera a $45 million deal. According to various sources, the Angels have pitched deals worth closer to $40 mil, but K-Rod isn't likely to get that kind of money if the Mets are out of the picture. They must still be in pursuit, as Rodriguez turned down the Angels' salary arbitration offer over the wekend.

Fuentes won't be returning to the Rockies, who acquired Street when they traded Matt Holliday to Oakland in November. Street could be packaged in another deal, but Fuentes is asking for far too much cash to remain in Denver and the Rocks are hopingManny Corpas emerges after an up-and-down season. The 26-year-old right-hander struggled with arm slot at times in 2008, and his pitches were flat when he wasn't right. Luis Vizcaino also had an off years, so keeping Street may make sense.

Early in the offseason, the Padres offered Trevor Hoffman a $4 million deal that included a team option for 2010, but then withdrew it when they went into cost-cutting mode. The offer wasn't particularly attractive -- Hoffman made $7.5 million last season -- but he wanted to finish his career in San Diego. Reportedly the Padres wouldn't sit down with the all-time saves leader after the team's change of heart, and it's not surprising that he's upset with management. Needless to say, Hoffman wasn't offered salary arbitration, which he was likely to accept. After the contract snafu, Hoffman told mlb.com that his chances of returning to the Padres are "not even 99-to-1."

According to reports, Cleveland is interested in Hoffman, whose numbers weren't all that far off from previous seasons, other than he was more prone to the longball in 2008. Cleveland's salary offer apparently is similar to the $4 million-a-year deal that the Padres dangled before yanking it off the table. Reportedly the Indians have been talking to Seattle about Putz, as well.

Cleveland turned to 24-year-old Jensen Lewis to close out games over the final two months of the season, after Joe Borowski was released in July and more-experienced teammates faltered in the ninth-inning role. Like most of his bullpen mates, Lewis, who made a successful conversion from starter to reliever as a minor leaguer in 2007, wasn't effective in June and July before converting 13 of 13 save opportunities and posting a 2.52 ERA in August and September. The Indians would prefer to find an established closer, which would allow the 24-year-old Lewis time to fine-tune his game.

The Cubs didn't offer salary arbitration to Kerry Wood, the hard-throwing right-hander who dazzled as a rookie by fanning 20 Astros in his fifth big league start in 1998. After going 71-55 in a starting career compromised by injury, Wood moved to the bullpen and saved 34 games last season, his first as a closer. The veteran and Cubs GM Jim Hendry have been close during Wood's tenure, but signing him long-term didn't fit into Chicago's plans, and Hendry reluctantly encouraged Wood to find the long-term deal he deserved.

Finding a closer is one of Milwaukee's top priorities, though GM Doug Melvin is saying he doesn't anticipate paying for an elite closer after giving Eric Gagne a $10 million deal a year ago. Wood may be on Melvin's short list, however, as the Brewers were interested in him when he was a free agent a year ago. Relocating to Milwaukee would keep Wood close to Chicago, where he has developed strong ties in his 11 big league seasons.

Reportedly Wood also has been a target of Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, and perhaps talks with the former Cub will heat up at the winter meetings in Las Vegas this week. Dombrowski has said Fernando Rodney would be the closer if no moves are made, but he expressed concern that the 31-year-old Rodney doesn't throw enough strikes with his closer-worthy stuff. Dombrowski tends to succeed in getting things done, and with the glut of closers on the market, Rodney's ninth-inning days may be over.

Chad Cordero, who became one of the best young closers in the game as a 22-year-old rookie in 2004, underwent shoulder surgery for tears in his labrum and biceps tendon in July. The Nationals, who didn't want to be tied to a $5 million commitment in 2009, outrighted him to Triple-A Syracuse at season's end. He rejected the move and became a free agent.

Currently Cordero's prognosis is that he'll be ready for spring training. It's uncertain, though, he'll be ready to close out games at the start of the new season, which may affect his value at a time there's plenty of closers available to teams. Reportedly he's drawn interest from the Angels and Rangers, and Texas has gone as far as asking the Nationals for Cordero's medical records.

With Cordero sidelined, Joel Hanrahan did a good job closing for Washington after Jon Rauch was dealt to Arizona near midseason. The 27-year-old right-hander, working his second big league season, saved nine games down the stretch and finished 2008 with a 3.95 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 84.1 innings. He'll get the chance to start the 2009 season as the Nationals closer.

Closer Candidates to Watch

If K-Rod moves on, the Angels may hand ninth-inning duties to Scot Shields or Jose Arredondo. That is, if they don't pick up a closer elsewhere. The 33-year-old Shields has been remarkably effective out of the Angels pen the last four seasons. Arredondo is coming off a terrific rookie campaign in which he often flashed stuff that reminded Angels fans of K-Rod. The 24-year-old right-hander looks like the long-term solution, and if K-Rod departs, the Angels may prefer to keep Shields in a role that he's handled successfully for them.

There's also an opening at the back end of the A's bullpen with Street's departure to Colorado. Oakland's former closer endured a few rough patches between June and August and began working mostly in non-save situations during the second half. He pitched with saves on the line just twice in the last two months, and blew both of them. Street could end up a setup man, whether in Colorado, New York or another big league locale.

Oakland reliever Brad Ziegler, a 29-year-old right-hander who has turned a corner in the high minors the last two seasons, stepped up and converted 12 of 14 save chances over the final two months of 2008. He made his major league debut on May 31 and worked 39 scoreless innings before allowing his first run on Aug. 13.

The sidearming Ziegler wasn't as dominant as those numbers suggest, as he struck out just 32 and walked 23 in 61.2 innings. He's a candidate to replace Street next spring, but the better option is 25-year-old Joey Devine. The right-hander, acquired from Atlanta for Mark Kotsay last January, was 6-1 with a 0.59 ERA in 45.2 innings in 2008. He allowed just 23 hits and three runs while striking out 49, but was just returning from a two-month stint on the disabled list with elbow inflammation when Ziegler took over for Street. Despite missing two months, Devine was terrific when he returned, allowing just two unearned runs in 23.2 innings down the stretch.

If the Mariners can acquire a middle-of-the-order bat by dealing Putz, they will turn to setup man Brandon Morrow. The 24-year-old right-hander was a solid eighth-inning pitcher in his second big league season, recording a 3.34 ERA and 75 strikeouts in 64.2 innings. He also picked up 10 saves in the middle of the season -- a two-month stretch in which Putz was on the DL with an elbow injury and Morrow posted a 1.66 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 21.2 frames. He blew back-to-back save chances just prior to the All-Star break, his only two blown opps of the season, but didn't allow a single run in his other 19 appearances in June and July.

Morrow looks ready for the job, though the Mariners gave him a look in the rotation in September. He came within four outs of a no-hitter in his first major league start facing the Yankees, and looked solid though walk-prone in two other outings. He was roughed up in his other two starts.

With the all-time saves leader departing San Diego, two 30-year-old right-handers are the top candidates to take over as the Padres closer. After suffering a knee injury and not pitching in 2007, Mike Adams surfaced with the Padres in May and turned in a terrific season. He had a 2.48 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 65.1 innings, but underwent surgery for a torn labrum and rotator cuff damage in October. Adams is likely to miss at least the first two months of the new season.

The other veteran candidate is Heath Bell, who probably will start 2009 as the ninth-inning guy with Adams unable to compete for the job. Although the right-hander has been a dependable reliever the last two seasons, posting a 2.73 ERA for San Diego, he has been less effective after the All-Star break both years. The second-half dropoff was substantial in 2008, after he allowed just 12 runs in 46 first-half appearances, good for a 2.15 ERA. Bell's ERA after the break was 6.18, and he gave up eight runs in the last two weeks of July alone. He also allowed at least one run in each of his last five 2008 appearances.

Mark Worrell, the Cardinals prospect moving west in San Diego's Khalil Greene deal, also could compete for the ninth-inning job for the rebuilding Padres. A middle-relief or setup role is more likely, which he's filled the last two seasons with Triple-A Memphis. The 25-year-old right-hander was dominant in 2008, posting a 2.15 ERA, striking out 80 and allowing just 45 hits and two home runs in 58.2 innings. Worrell isn't a flame-thrower; he's more like Hoffman. Worrell, who throws in the high-80s, excels by relying on an unorthodox delivery and a variety of arm angles. In four minor league seasons, he's limited hitters to a .208 batting average.

With Kevin Gregg dealt to the Cubs in November, Matt Lindstrom is the heir apparent to work ninth innings for the Marlins. The hard-throwing right-hander was terrific in the second half, posting a 1.86 ERA in 32 appearances and converting all five save opportunities in September, when Gregg was out with a knee injury. Lindstrom is clearly the front-runner going into spring training.

Gregg isn't certain to be the full-time closer with Chicago. He and Carlos Marmol will compete for ninth-inning duties in the spring, and Marmol, who has been far more dominant than Gregg the last two seasons, may be the favorite. It's possible they will share the ninth inning, and with a strong spring, Gregg could become the primary closer if the Cubs prefer to keep Marmol in the setup role that he handled masterfully in 2008.

The Cardinals closer for the last six seasons, Jason Isringhausen, finished his stint with St. Louis on the DL with an elbow injury that required surgery in September. Still, don't look for the Cards to chase a free-agent closer at the winter meetings this week. Top prospect Chris Perez, a 23-year-old right-hander, showed he's probably ready to take on a major role in the pen in 2009. He was a bit inconsistent in his first major league trial, but he converted all six of his August save chances in eight dominant relief appearances. At season's end, Perez had seven saves, a 3.46 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 41.2 innings.

St. Louis may have another ninth-inning option in 26-year-old rookie Jason Motte, a catcher-turned-pitcher who reached the majors in just his third year on the mound. In his first Triple-A stint in 2008, the right-hander fanned 110 and picked up nine saves in 66.2 innings at Memphis. In September, Motte joined the Cardinals and allowed a single earned run in 12 appearances. He fanned 16 in 11 innings, posted a 0.82 ERA and converted his one save chance. Veteran Ryan Franklin may also be in the closer mix, but it's more likely that the job will be turned over to Perez or Motte.

On Sunday, both Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon rejected Arizona's salary arbitration offers, freeing up cash to spend on a replacement for second baseman Orlando Hudson. Those moves leave closer duties to either Chad Qualls or Jon Rauch, who was acquired from Washington for a minor league prospect in July.

Rauch was terrific during the first half of 2008 for Washington, taking over as closer and posting a 2.98 ERA and 17 saves before he was dealt to Arizona. His success evaporated into the desert heat, as the 30-year-old right-hander allowed batters to hit .303 with six home runs in just 23.1 innings. He had a 6.56 ERA with the Diamondbacks.

Rauch had built on a breakout 2007 season before the trade, and he looked like a steal with a $2.9 million contract. The 6-foot-11 reliever still could be a key contributor in the D-Backs pen, but he may trail Qualls in pursuit of ninth-inning duties for 2009. While Rauch and Lyons struggled down the stretch last summer, Qualls pitched brilliantly over the final two months and assumed the closer role. He finished the year with a 2.81 ERA, 71 strikeouts, only 18 walks allowed and nine saves.

Reportedly the Tigers have expressed interest in both Lyon and Washington closer Chad Cordero. Whoever takes over for Todd Jones, who has retired, could be a short-term solution, as the Tigers are looking to have either Joel Zumaya or 2008 first-round pick Ryan Perry assume the role in the not-too-distant future. After an outstanding big league debut in 2006 -- at the age of 21 -- Zumaya has been sidelined for much of the last two seasons with finger and shoulder aliments. Perry, who turns 22 in February, pitched well as a reliever for high Class-A Lakeland in his first professional season.

Tampa Bay closer Troy Percival underwent successful back surgery the first week of December, and he's expected to be ready in early April. Back ailments are less predictable than most other injuries, and Grant Balfour is the strongest candidate to step into the ninth-inning role if Percival needs more time to mend. The Aussie right-hander had a breakout season in 2008, with 82 strikeouts and a 1.54 ERA in 58.1 innings for the American League champion Rays.

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Thom Henninger is a senior writer at STATS LLC. Over the years he has served as an editor and contributed to The Scouting Notebook and numerous STATS publications. You can reach him at henninger@stats.com.

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